This year's draft - the first following the collectively bargained rule requiring all American high-schoolers to be either 19 or have finished 1 year in college before being drafted - is possibly the most anticipated NBA selection process since the 2003 Draft yielded all-pros LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. Additionally, the intrigue surrounding the draft includes the spector of huge names being traded - Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire and Jermaine O'Neal. All of which will probably lead to the most watched draft in a long time. Andrea Bargnani it's not.
One of the more interesting pieces of pre-draft fodder was ESPN's John Hollinger's study on predicting the NBA potential of collegiate players. Granted, you need ESPN Insider to read the article, but to summarize, Hollinger attempted to "reverse engineer" the past 5 drafts to isolate the predictors for NBA success. Some would call this simply econometrics or statistics, in that he simply looked for significant factors in his formula. However he came up with his formula, he posits that the factors predicting NBA success are, in order: Age, Steals, Blocks, Rebounds, 3-Pointers and Pure-Point Rating.
Below is Hollinger's chart comparing players of the last 5 drafts.
COMPARISON TO RECENT DRAFTS
| 2002 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Carlos Boozer | Duke | 711.0 | 26 | Jay Williams |
| 2. | Drew Gooden | Kansas | 678.6 | 3 | Mike Dunleavy Jr. |
| 3. | Chris Wilcox | Maryland | 608.6 | 5 | Drew Gooden |
| 4. | Curtis Borchardt | Stanford | 598.1 | 12 | Dajuan Wagner |
| 5. | Mike Dunleavy Jr. | Duke | 561.0 | 2 | Chris Wilcox |
| 6. | Jay Williams | Duke | 515.0 | 1 | Caron Butler |
| 7. | Jared Jeffries | Indiana | 503.3 | 7 | Jared Jeffries |
| 8. | Udonis Haslem | Florida | 498.9 | Undrafted | Melvin Ely |
| 9. | Vincent Yarbrough | Tennessee | 498.5 | 24 | Marcus Haislip |
| 10. | Caron Butler | UConn | 495.0 | 6 | Fred Jones |
| 11. | Tayshaun Prince | Kentucky | 480.1 | 16 | Juan Dixon |
| 12. | Casey Jacobsen | Stanford | 471.5 | 15 | Curtis Borchardt |
* among collegians only
Notables: Fred Jones (428.9, 19th); Juan Dixon (390.6, 25th); Jannero Pargo (377.6, 30th); John Salmons (360.1); Matt Barnes (352.0); Dan Gadzuric (285.5); Darius Songaila (249.3); Dan Dickau (215.0)
| 2003 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Carmelo Anthony | Syracuse | 781.3 | 1 | Carmelo Anthony |
| 2. | Mike Sweetney | Georgetown | 702.8 | 7 | Chris Bosh |
| 3. | Chris Bosh | Georgia Tech | 688.4 | 2 | Dwyane Wade |
| 4. | Dwyane Wade | Marquette | 600.4 | 3 | Chris Kaman |
| 5. | Nick Collison | Kansas | 553.4 | 9 | Kirk Hinrich |
| 6. | T.J. Ford | Texas | 549.5 | 6 | T.J. Ford |
| 7. | Kirk Hinrich | Kansas | 504.0 | 5 | Michael Sweetney |
| 8. | Josh Howard | Wake Forest | 501.4 | 17 | Jarvis Hayes |
| 9. | Kyle Korver | Creighton | 499.7 | 31 | Nick Collison |
| 10. | David West | Xavier | 494.7 | 14 | Marcus Banks |
| 11. | Troy Bell | Boston College | 481.5 | 13 | Luke Ridnour |
| 12. | Jarvis Hayes | Georgia | 478.9 | 8 | Reece Gaines |
* among collegians only
Notables: Marquis Daniels (474.3, 13th); Marcus Banks (472.3, 15th); Chris Kaman (462.7, 16th) Matt Carroll (447.5, 18th); Quinton Ross (443.5, 19th); Luke Ridnour (442.3, 20th); Matt Bonner (440.4, 21st); Maurice Williams (428.5, 23rd); Luke Walton (420.2, 25th); Keith Bogans (362.8); Steve Blake (361.8); Dahntay Jones (358.7); Brian Cook (349.9); Jason Kapono (337.2); James Jones (333.1)
| 2004 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Luol Deng | Duke | 650.7 | 5 | Emeka Okafor |
| 2. | Delonte West | Saint Joseph's | 626.9 | 12 | Ben Gordon |
| 3. | Devin Harris | Wisconsin | 614.6 | 3 | Devin Harris |
| 4. | Emeka Okafor | Connecticut | 579.4 | 1 | Josh Childress |
| 5. | Luke Jackson | Oregon | 558.5 | 8 | Luol Deng |
| 6. | Josh Childress | Stanford | 530.0 | 4 | Rafael Araujo |
| 7. | Ben Gordon | Connecticut | 529.1 | 2 | Andre Iguodala |
| 8. | Kris Humphries | Minnesota | 527.6 | 9 | Luke Jackson |
| 9. | Jameer Nelson | Saint Joseph's | 522.2 | 11 | Kris Humphries |
| 10. | Kevin Martin | Western Carolina | 517.7 | 14 | Kirk Snyder |
| 11. | Andre Iguodala | Arizona | 509.5 | 7 | Jameer Nelson |
| 12. | Andre Emmett | Texas Tech | 472.3 | 18 | Delonte West |
* among collegians only
Notables: Kirk Snyder (464.5, 14th); Chris Duhon (454.3, 15th); David Harrison (432.0, 21st) Tony Allen (377.0, 27th); Royal Ivey (341.8)
| 2005 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Chris Paul | Wake Forest | 705.9 | 4 | Andrew Bogut |
| 2. | Marvin Williams | North Carolina | 697.6 | 2 | Marvin Williams |
| 3. | Sean May | North Carolina | 690.4 | 9 | Deron Williams |
| 4. | Rashad McCants | North Carolina | 639.4 | 10 | Chris Paul |
| 5. | Andrew Bogut | Utah | 579.7 | 1 | Raymond Felton |
| 6. | Channing Frye | Arizona | 579.7 | 7 | Charlie Villanueva |
| 7. | Raymond Felton | North Carolina | 562.1 | 5 | Channing Frye |
| 8. | Chris Taft | Pittsburgh | 559.7 | 30 | Ike Diogu |
| 9. | Danny Granger | New Mexico | 554.4 | 13 | Sean May |
| 10. | Nate Robinson | Washington | 538.0 | 16 | Rashad McCants |
| 11. | Deron Williams | Illinois | 523.7 | 3 | Antoine Wright |
| 12. | Jarrett Jack | Georgia Tech | 523.3 | 17 | Joey Graham |
* among collegians only
Notables: Charlie Villanueva (521.9, 13th); David Lee (482.7, 19th); Kelenna Azubuike (454.2, 25th) Salim Stoudamire (449.4, 26th); Francisco Garcia (448.8, 27th); Daniel Ewing (446.3, 28th); Chuck Hayes (443.9, 30th); Ronny Turiaf (442.7); Ryan Gomes (430.9); Hakim Warrick (427.8); Luther Head (419.7) Ike Diogu (402.5); Antoine Wright (387.8); Joey Graham (353.8); Jason Maxiell (342.5); Linas Kleiza (308.4)
| 2006 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Tyrus Thomas | LSU | 756.8 | 3 | LaMarcus Aldridge |
| 2. | Shelden Williams | Duke | 583.1 | 4 | Adam Morrison |
| 3. | Brandon Roy | Washington | 557.6 | 5 | Tyrus Thomas |
| 4. | Ronnie Brewer | Arkansas | 555.8 | 11 | Shelden Williams |
| 5. | Rudy Gay | Connecticut | 552.1 | 7 | Brandon Roy |
| 6. | Patrick O'Bryant | Bradley | 551.9 | 8 | Randy Foye |
| 7. | Paul Davis | Michigan State | 546.6 | 28 | Rudy Gay |
| 8. | Kyle Lowry | Villanova | 538.6 | 20 | Patrick O'Bryant |
| 9. | Rajon Rondo | Kentucky | 534.5 | 17 | J.J. Redick |
| 10. | LaMarcus Aldridge | Texas | 524.3 | 1 | Hilton Armstrong |
| 11. | Quincy Douby | Rutgers | 516.8 | 15 | Ronnie Brewer |
| 12. | Marcus Williams | Connecticut | 512.1 | 18 | Cedric Simmons |
* among collegians only
Notables: Randy Foye (502.3, 13th); J.J. Redick (479.6, 18th); Rodney Carney (469.4, 19th); Adam Morrison (466.3, 20th); Renaldo Balkman (458.3, 23rd); Daniel Gibson (456.3, 25th); Jordan Farmar (450.0, 27th); Paul Millsap (440.0); Josh Boone (414.8); Craig Smith (377.8); Hilton Armstrong (304.6)
Here's is Hollinger's predictor for 2007:
| 2007 Draft: Top 30 rated collegians, plus other notables | ||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | CHAD FORD'S RANKING |
| 1. | Kevin Durant | Texas | 870.7 | 2 |
| 2. | Greg Oden | Ohio State | 667.9 | 1 |
| 3. | Mike Conley Jr. | Ohio State | 637.9 | 7 |
| 4. | Thaddeus Young | Georgia Tech | 604.2 | 14 |
| 5. | Brandan Wright | North Carolina | 601.4 | 8 |
| 6. | Al Horford | Florida | 601.0 | 3 |
| 7. | Nick Fazekas | Nevada | 594.3 | 35 |
| 8. | Josh McRoberts | Duke | 566.7 | 26 |
| 9. | Rodney Stuckey | E. Washington | 557.7 | 16 |
| 10. | Jared Dudley | Boston College | 542.6 | 31 |
| 11. | Joakim Noah | Florida | 528.6 | 9 |
| 12. | Glen Davis | LSU | 521.0 | 25 |
| 13. | Sean Williams | Boston College | 511.3 | 20 |
| 14. | Jeff Green | Georgetown | 505.5 | 6 |
| 15. | Kyle Visser | Wake Forest | 503.5 | 57 |
| 16. | Herbert Hill | Providence | 503.0 | 49 |
| 17. | Javaris Crittenton | Georgia Tech | 492.2 | 18 |
| 18. | Wilson Chandler | DePaul | 483.1 | 30 |
| 19. | Julian Wright | Kansas | 481.4 | 11 |
| 20. | Daequan Cook | Ohio State | 470.0 | 27 |
| 21. | D.J. Strawberry | Maryland | 465.5 | 52 |
| 22. | Jason Smith | Colorado State | 464.9 | 17 |
| 23. | Alando Tucker | Wisconsin | 464.3 | 41 |
| 24. | Corey Brewer | Florida | 462.4 | 5 |
| 25. | Al Thornton | Florida State | 447.8 | 10 |
| 26. | Marcus Williams | Arizona | 445.8 | 33 |
| 27. | Acie Law | Texas A&M | 445.2 | 15 |
| 28. | Aaron Gray | Pittsburgh | 440.5 | 38 |
| 29. | Zabian Dowdell | Virginia Tech | 438.2 | 34 |
| 30. | Spencer Hawes | Washington | 433.9 | 12 |
| Other notables | ||||
| Morris Almond | Rice | 425.6 | 22 | |
| Derrick Byars | Vanderbilt | 421.9 | 28 | |
| Gabe Pruitt | USC | 421.0 | 21 | |
| Nick Young | USC | 383.8 | 13 | |
| Taurean Green | Florida | 350.4 | 39 | |
| Arron Afflalo | UCLA | 336.1 | 32 | |
| Ramon Sessions | Nevada | 334.7 | 37 | |
Very interesting. See my Mock Draft to follow...
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