Okay Mike, here are this year's grades. I'll leave Mike as the temporary arbiter of how the grades ultimately played out. Generally, I'll say I had similar grades (on players) as most NBA analysts did. I pegged Oden, Horford, Durant, Jeff Green, and Conley Jr. as potential stars - real tough there, huh - and guess what, it looks like the NBA generally got it right with those 5, although obviously the book is still out on Oden and Conley, they have time. Horford should've been co-ROY with Durant. I was right on some players drafted high being role-player types - Acie Law, Jared Dudley, Daequan Cook.
I was also very wrong on some others that I thought would not succeed - Carl Landry, Julian Wright, Al Thorton. Anyway, there is still time to go on that year's choices.
Using the same scoring system as always -
5 - future multiple All-Star/All-NBA (Kobe Bryant)
4 - Starter for just about every NBA team(Rashard Lewis)
3 - Solid "rotation" player, would make the top-7 on teams(Leandro Barbosa)
2 - Back of rotation player - 8th, 9th guy in the game (Jordan Farmer)
1 - end of the bench/total bust (Kwame Brown)
Away we go:
Atlanta (Inc.) - No picks. Bright future though for a team that took the eventual champion Celtics to 7 games in Round 1. Al Horford will be an All-Star.
Boston (C+) - Why not gamble on J.R. Giddens (2), Bill Walker (2), and Erden (1)? All huge on potential, small on actual contributions. Here's guessing none of those players ever actually make a difference for the Celtics - although they might on another team. I like how they bought the Wizards choice (Walker). But whatever, they won the title!
Charlotte (D-) - I hated this draft. D.J. Augustin (3) was the centerpiece of the draft, but I remember when they chose Augustin - when his name was Raymond Felton. Wow they gave up on him quick. And Alex Ajinca (1) is likely to be a total bust, but at least he was French and weight approximately 20 pounds more than me (while standing a foot taller). Kyle Weaver (2) is a more solid pick, but again, he is another PG on a team loaded with them.
Chicago (B) - How tough was it to chose Derrick Rose (5)? The guy isn't going to average 25 and 12, but I like the Jason Kidd comparison. He could be a 17-10-7 guy in 4 years, and you can build a team around that. Plus his attitude seems to be top notch. Lucky lottery for the Bulls. Omer Asik (1) and Sonny Weems (1) probably won't make the roster. This was a 1-person draft.
Cleveland (B+) - I liked the acquisition of J.J. Hickson (3). Some scouts project him out as a P.J. Brown - which would be great for Cleveland. They didn't need more toughness inside (they need scoring), but they got it anyway.
Dallas (Inc.) - Drafting only Shan Foster (1) doesn't warrant a grade.
Denver (Inc.) - No picks. Wow, are they really going to do the AI/Carmelo show again? What a recipe for a 1st round sweep!
Detroit (C) - Traded their 1st rounder for essentially 2 other second rounders, Walter Sharpe (2) and Trent Plaisted (1). I actually like Deron Washington's (2) skills, but I doubt there's any room on Detroit for him. I wouldn't plan on actually seeing any of these guys play for Detroit this year.
Golden State (F) - No player is more risk/reward in this draft than Anthony Randolph (2), who I think will be something in between. Still, this team has selected Patrick O'Bryant, Ike Diogu, Adonal Foyle, Brendan Wright, and now Randolph. At some point, the players you draft actually have to play, Chris Mullin! Richard Hendrix (2) will probably play more in the next 2 years than Randolph, and they'll play him millions less. Could Randolph turn into Chris Bosh? Maybe, but this is not the team that should be waiting to find out.
Houston (C-) - As the pattern shows, I don't think a lot of great players were in this draft. Donta Greene (2) won't ever reach his "potential," and Marty Leunen (1) was basically a "we-don't-want-to-make-this-pick-please" placeholder. Joey Dorsey (3) I believe could help improve Houston's interior play though.
Indiana (B) - I liked each pick individually, Brandon Rush (3) and Roy Hibbert (3), although I don't see either becoming stars or more than rotation players in the league. Rush will be the rare NBA player that doesn't shoot enough at first, although once he sees Mike Dunleavy putting up 30+ points a night he'll get the idea. Hibbert is tall, can shoot, and has good offensive moves around the basket. However, his lack of lateral movement and speed is really going to hurt him on defense. You can use him for 15-20 minutes a game to alter shots and maybe score on the inside. Not sure what type of team Indy is actually building here either.
LA. Clippers (F+) - I think Eric Gordon (2), for all his shooting prowess, is going to struggle in the league. Just a guess - obviously scouts loved him as much, if not more, than Derrick Rose before last season. Gordon has talent, but just never looked like he had the game under control. Likewise, DeAndre Jordan (1) was a great risk pick at 35, but it's hard to outweigh the albatross that a Gordon pick brings. Mike Taylor (1) might be in the D-League for a while.
L.A. Lakers (Inc.) - If Kobe makes a Shaq diss track, I'd give them an A. Right now, Joe Crawford (1) doesn't warrant a grade.
Memphis (B+) - I am not as big on O.J. Mayo (4) as others. I never saw that All-Star game that others did. Maybe he will be awesome. But I see Mayo as a proficient combo guard, maybe with a Gilbert Arenas ceiling, but with Randy Foye and Rashard McCants possibilities. It was a good thing he got traded away from those guys. Still, Memphis has a huge logjam at PG with Conley, Crittendon, and now Mayo - who has the potential to be a very good defensive player. I like Darrell Arthur (3) - I was hoping the Wizards would take him.
Miami Heat (A-) - This grade is not reflective of Michael Beasley (4), who I think we average 20-8 in his rookie year. I think Mario Chalmers (3) was a great fit for their team, allowing Dwayne Wade some freedom off the ball. I also like Darnell Jackson (2). Given their position, Miami maximized their choices. They could even swap Beasley for O.J. Mayo + Crittendon (with Memphis) or something if they really want to now.
Milwaukee (B-) - Everyone says Joe Alexander (3) is some freakish athlete. I'm on board with that, but plenty of freakish athletes have fizzled in the pros - Gerald Green, Harold Minor. Alexander seems like he will be a decent starter for the Bucks, but where? They just got Richard Jefferson and they play the same spot. Luc Mbah a Moute (3) can recognize his potential if he realizes that he should just focus on defensive until he's in his late 20's. Then he should start spotting up in the corner for 3's. That is the recipe for being the next Bruce Bowen.
Minnesota (B) - You wanted star power, but you went for the dependable power forward, Kevin Love (3). Love is a guy who doesn't look like a true power forward, but may be able to play it well. They talk about his outlet passes with reverence...but how is he guarding Tim Duncan, Carlos Boozer, Kevin Garnett, etc.? We'll see. Pekovic (1) is an oversees stashee.
New Jersey (C-) - To me, Brook Lopez (3) is Jason Collins redux. I don't see him making a huge difference with the Nets. Maybe Ryan Anderson (2) has a higher ceiling, but he's a couple years away. This team is just clearing cap space for the LeBron sweepstakes... but surprise, Chris Douglas-Roberts (3) is a very good player sitting there in the 2nd round. I think he'll be a 15 ppg scorer, sort of a instant offense guy, off the bench in 3 years.
New Orleans (Inc.) - Sold the #27 pick in the draft for $3 mil. Hey, if everyone else is doing it...
New York (C) - Gotta love the MSG "faithful." Yeah, let's boo our new player so his confidence is shattered before he even steps on the court! Everyone says Danilo Gallinari (3) is a star like Dirk - but I think people should stop looking for the next Dirk. He was on in a thousand.
Orlando (C-) - Bought into the hype that was Courtney Lee (2). Do they need a 2-guard? Yes. Is Lee going to instantly kick out Keith Bogans or J.J. Redick? If you have to think about the question, then it was a bad choice.
Philadelphia (B) - This is a team on the rise (assuming Igudola comes back), and being so young, they could afford to gamble on Mareese Speights (3). I give him a 10% chance of being a 20-10 guy, so they could've hit a home run with him. Still, he couldn't crack the Florida rotation as a freshman, so he needs time after an up-and-down sophomore year.
Phoenix (B-) - This grade is an automatic upgrade - they didn't sell the choice! Robin Lopez (2) projects as a back-up center. Are we now drafting back-up centers in the 1st round?? I actually think Malik Hairston (3) has a chance to do some things - played out of position his whole career at Oregon.
Portland (D) - I think picking up Jerryd Bayless (3) was a steal (although I don't think he's going to be the next Gilbert Arenas - obvious comparison). I just thought with their young team, they needed to trade for veterans, no matter how they got them. The team is well on its way - they just need to get another scorer to help out Roy, but not a freshman. Someone like Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, or Antwan Jamison would've made sense. Nicolas Batum (1) is never playing in the NBA.
Sacramento (B) - Okay, I thought Jason Thompson (2) from Rider was a HUGE stretch at #12. Talk about your workout warrior. However, they tempered that by taking 2 kids I think actually know how to play - Sean Singletary (3) and Patrick Ewing, Jr., both of whom could make an 8-man rotation for someone.
San Antonio (D-) - Unless the genius Spurs do something else, I'm assuming they are just throwing away these draft picks. George Hill (1) wasn't even in the NBA's 224-page draft guide. Goran Dragic (1) sounds like an assassin and won't play in the NBA, and Maryland's James Gist (1) is a phenomenal athlete destined for overseas play.
Seattle/OKC (B-) - So they're hogging all the choices! I like Russell Westbrook (3) as a player, but I just don't seem him being (a) a PG or (b) a star. With the #4 choice you should get one of the two. I think Westbrook will eventually be a lockdown defender, but will struggle to run the offense and get his own shots. Fortunately, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are there to help. D.J. White (3) will help replace the Danny Fortson/Reggie Evans toughness they used to have. I think Serge Ibaka (1) is another pipe dream, Sasha Kaun (1) won't play in the U.S. (he's being offered more money), and DeVon Hardin (1) is another developmental prospect for a team that needs contributors now.
Toronto - (Inc.) - Traded T.J. Ford for Jermaine O'Neal - can O'Neal still play? If so, Jose Calderon is a great PG for them. Nathan Jawai (1) isn't making it in the league.
Utah (C) - As has been noted, if there is a tall white guy out there, Utah will make sure to draft him. Kosta Koufos (2) never struck me as a special player. Ante Tomic (3) I think is the better of the two, but he's a couple of years away, but I think people forgot the hype about Tomic. And Dragecevic (1) is joining the assassins' guild with Mr. Dragic. Watch out Kobe.
Washington (D) - Last, but not least, my hometown Wizards go chalk and choose JaVale McGee (2) from Nevada. Mike Wilbon likes the choice - I don't. I hope McGee proves me wrong, but if I'm Brendan Haywood or Andray Blatche I'm not exactly worried about my job right now. Big guys don't always add something - all Peter Ramos used to do was stare at the cheerleaders. Seriously.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
A Parallel Fantasy League (Within a League (Within a League...))
In a bizzaro world where the Brewers actually decide to "protect" their #1 pitching prospect, Yovanni Gallardo, by moving him to the bullpen where he can overstress his arm in unpredictable, high-stress situations, we have the equally bizzare rotisserie league standings for the WULAW International Shoe Fantasy Baseball league.
Currently, our league features teams in this general tier (with current league standings):
Tier 1: McKeon (1)
Tier 2: Brian (3)
Tier 3: Brady (2), Ginsburg (4), Stav (5), Varadro (6), Lee (7)
Tier 4: Martin (8)
Tier 5: Ricky (9), Anthony (10)
Tier 6: Kyle (11), Gary (12)
Given the vagaries of head-to-head play, here are the standings for the bizzaro "rotisserie" league, taking into account Ricky's objections to the scoring:
R HR RBI SB OPS Total Hitting Points
McKeon 9 12 11 12 11.5 55.5
Brian 12 11 10 8 11.5 52.5
Brady 7 5 3 7 7 29
Ginsburg 10 8 6 10 6 40
Stav 4 7 4 2 5 22
Vardaro 8 6 12 9 9 44
C 11 10 9 6 10 46
Martin 3 1 1 11 2 18
Ricky 6 9 8 3 4 30
Anthony 2 4 2 4 1 13
Kyle 5 3 5 1 8 22
Gary 1 2 7 5 3 18
W SV K ERA WHIP Total Pitching Points
McKeon 12 8 8 9 11 48
Brian 4 3 10 10 7 34
Brady 1 12 1 4 4 22
Ginsburg 2 10.5 7 2 2 23.5
Stav 10 4 12 12 12 50
Vardaro 3 5 2 5 6 21
C 11 9 11 6 3 40
Martin 8 10.5 5 8 10 41.5
Ricky 5 7 6 3 5 27
Anthony 7 6 9 7 9 38
Kyle 6 1 3 1 1 12
Gary 9 2 4 11 8 34
Total Standings
1) McKeon - 103.5
2) Brian - 86.5
3) C - 86
4) Stav - 72
5) Ginsburg - 63.5
6) Vardaro - 63
7) Martin - 59.5
8) Ricky - 57
9) Gary - 52
10) AK - 51
10) Brady - 51
12) Kyle - 44
Currently, our league features teams in this general tier (with current league standings):
Tier 1: McKeon (1)
Tier 2: Brian (3)
Tier 3: Brady (2), Ginsburg (4), Stav (5), Varadro (6), Lee (7)
Tier 4: Martin (8)
Tier 5: Ricky (9), Anthony (10)
Tier 6: Kyle (11), Gary (12)
Given the vagaries of head-to-head play, here are the standings for the bizzaro "rotisserie" league, taking into account Ricky's objections to the scoring:
R HR RBI SB OPS Total Hitting Points
McKeon 9 12 11 12 11.5 55.5
Brian 12 11 10 8 11.5 52.5
Brady 7 5 3 7 7 29
Ginsburg 10 8 6 10 6 40
Stav 4 7 4 2 5 22
Vardaro 8 6 12 9 9 44
C 11 10 9 6 10 46
Martin 3 1 1 11 2 18
Ricky 6 9 8 3 4 30
Anthony 2 4 2 4 1 13
Kyle 5 3 5 1 8 22
Gary 1 2 7 5 3 18
W SV K ERA WHIP Total Pitching Points
McKeon 12 8 8 9 11 48
Brian 4 3 10 10 7 34
Brady 1 12 1 4 4 22
Ginsburg 2 10.5 7 2 2 23.5
Stav 10 4 12 12 12 50
Vardaro 3 5 2 5 6 21
C 11 9 11 6 3 40
Martin 8 10.5 5 8 10 41.5
Ricky 5 7 6 3 5 27
Anthony 7 6 9 7 9 38
Kyle 6 1 3 1 1 12
Gary 9 2 4 11 8 34
Total Standings
1) McKeon - 103.5
2) Brian - 86.5
3) C - 86
4) Stav - 72
5) Ginsburg - 63.5
6) Vardaro - 63
7) Martin - 59.5
8) Ricky - 57
9) Gary - 52
10) AK - 51
10) Brady - 51
12) Kyle - 44
Monday, July 2, 2007
2007 NBA Draft Grades
For those who know me, this has long been an exercise of mine. I only wish I could go back and view the previous ones to see how badly I missed on previous predictions. I can only remember a few snippets:
1) the Sonics would regret drafting Corey Maggette and immediately trading him (tough call there).
2) Carlos Rogers (the Tennessee basketball player) would be awesome (oops).
3) Richard Jefferson was going to be a star (good call).
4) Andre Iguodala was going to be a star (another good call).
5) Curtis Borchardt would be a serviceable NBA center (uh, no).
You can compare me to NBA-Draft expert Chad Ford.
As you know (Mike, X) I grade each team on its choices and rate the picks on a 1-5 scale:
5 - future All-NBA (Kobe Bryant)
4 - Very good player, All-Star caliber, maybe multiple All-Star appearances (Rashard Lewis)
3 - solid NBA starter/6th man candidate (Leandro Barbosa)
2 - borderline starter/solid bench player (DeShawn Stevenson)
1 - end of the bench/total bust (Nikoloz Tskitisvilii (sp))
Okay, without further ado:
Atlanta (C-): Al Horford (4); Acie Law IV (2). Tough to argue with drafting Horford, who is a better forward than any of the myriad of players on the Hawks (Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Josh Smith, Josh Childress) but Mike Conley could have run this team into an 8th playoff spot in the East. Law had a great college career but strikes me as a Juan-Dixonesque shooter/clutch performer who won't run an NBA team like a college one. Great to have on the team, but at 11? As noted, they needed to turn this pick into All-NBA center Amare Stoudemire. Failure to do so will haunt them for years.
Boston (F): Gabe Pruitt (3); Glen Davis (2). A team that has no idea what they want to do. Last year they shipped what could've been ROY Brandon Roy out for Bass Telfair - and everyone knew Telfair SUCKED. Okay, so they're going for young vets, I get it. Then they refuse to part with young Al Jefferson to get KG. Okay, youth movement, yah! Then they trade the #5 pick, plus very underrated Delonte West and servicable Wally Sczerviak for - Ray Allen?? Ray Allen's a great, All-Star player, but how is Ray Allen going to get them to the title? Just bizzare.
Charlotte (B-): Jared Dudley (2); Jamareo Davidson (1). Traded UNC all-overrated all-athletics forward Brandan Wright to Golden State for Jason Richardson. I actually really liked this move. Charlotte has a bevy of young players (May, Morrison, Felton, Okafor, Hermann, etc.) and getting a fairly young veteran was a good move. High-risk with Davidson - could be boom or busy. I think Dudley's stock rose a ton at the end, he produced well in the Big East but might be overmatched by more athletic 3's in the NBA.
Chicago (C): Joachim Noah (3); Aaron Gray (2); JamesOn Curry (1). 3 picks - MORE youth. This is a team that was 1 low-post scorer from representing the East in the NBA finals. Could they get KG? Jermaine O'Neal? Maybe - instead they end up getting two centers who will compete with recent big-money acquisition Ben Wallace and FA P.J. Brown to figure out someway to keep scores in the 60's - which is where the team needs to be after adding zero scoring in the draft.
Cleveland (INC): no picks. Wow. Shannon Brown needs to get off the bench for the Cavs and start at the 2.
Dallas (C+): Nick Fazekas (3); Rayshawn Terry (1); Renaldus Seibutis (1). Fazekas could be a rotation player immediately - he's got a great shot and will kind of be Dirk-lite off the bench. Better rebounder than people credit him for. Not a bad 2nd round choice at all. Terry is another one of those all-athletic but no-basketball skill players. Can't do much with them. Seibutis? Who?
Denver (INC): Another team with no picks. Who are these guys, the Redskins?
Detroit (B): Rodney Stuckey (3); Aaron Afflalo (2); Sammy Meija (1). Big need is resigning Chauncey Billups. But this team should've rolled the LeBrons in the East finals. Stuckey is a big upgrade over Flip Murray as the backup combo guard. Afflalo is a very solid defender but will have to expand his range to the NBA 3-point line to stick in the league. He was exposed in big games by big-time athletes. He knows how to play, but it's a big athletic disadvantage.
Golden State (B-): Brandan Wright (3); Marco Bellinelli (3); Stephen Lasme (2). Okay, this is a tough call. If Wright is going to be useful anywhere, it's in Golden State, where he can run all day. Again, I get the sense that Wright looks great in workouts - but can't actually play. So that's the negative. On the positive side, scouts have salivated over his potential so it's a good value for Golden State. Bellinelli is a great addition - veteran savvy in the backcourt and Lasme is a good risk as a amazing college shot-blocker. One gets the sense that the Warriors should've traded to get a veteran, not younger, on a team that destroyed the #1 seed Mavericks.
Houston (D): Aaron Brooks (2); Carl Landry (2); Brad Newsley (1). Very wierd. This team can't get out of the 1st round and they choose Brooks in the 1st round. Could make me look bad, but Brooks was a great college player who doesn't seem to have the adaptable game to be an NBA starter. Could be a great firestarter off the bench though. Landry ran his mouth against Oden and then ended up with 0 points and 0 rebounds. Nice dude. Newsley will probably never play in the U.S.
Indiana (F): Stanko Barac (1). They lose this spot for trading the 11th choice for Al Harrington. Barac is total 2nd round European speculation. But they could've used Taurean Green or Jared Jordan.
L.A. Clippers (C+) : Al Thorton (2); Jared Jordan (3). Thorton never impressed me as a high-level all-around player. Maybe as a 6th man he'll be good. Jordan, though, could be a good stop-gap for the loss of Shaun Livingston.
L.A. Lakers (D+): Javaris Crittendon (3); Sun Yue (1); Marc Gasol (1). Crittendon should've stayed in school, 100%. He's going to struggle immediately. Also, didn't they draft Jordan Farmer in the 1st round last year? And does having a point guard matter when Kobe dominates the ball anyway? When trying to keep Kobe happy, they should've looked to more NBA-ready players like Jared Dudley.
Memphis (B+): Mike Conley (4). I'm high on Conley - I think he'll be near the level of Chris Paul in 3 years. Just a natural, fluid PG with a knack for changing speeds and making the right decision. Lacks the physical nature of Deron Williams (still a better choice than Paul) but is the type of player that others (like Oden - soon to be Gasol, Gay, Miller, etc.) will love to play with. Should've gone #3 to Atlanta. Lack of picks drops Memphis to a B+.
Miami (F+): Daequan Cook (1). I'm assigning the total bust label to Cook, who was selfish and not all that great in 1 year at the Ohio State University. I'm not even sure they're upset he left. Lots of talent, but so was "baby-Jordan" Harold Miner.
Milwaukee (B): Yi Jianlian (3); Ronnie Sessions (3). I like Sessions - I think he'll be a decent starting PG or 25 minute backup. Yi - total mystery. Good for Milwaukee in not caving into his ridiculous demands to go to a team with an Asian-American population. They didn't even get to see his workout. Shrouded in mystery! I like drafting a player I've never seen in person. Isn't that going to be awkward? "Hi, I'm Yi. I hate Milawaukee, but I know you want me to be your franchise cornerstone." Awesome.
Minnesota (B-): Corey Brewer (3); Chris Richard (3). Is it just be or does Brewer seem overrated? Everyone thinks he's the next Jefferson, or Pierce. I don't trust his jump-shot and I think he's a bit overrated on defense (but still decent). Richard looked great whenver Florida put him in, and he might instantly become the T-Wolves 2nd best low-post scorer. KG needs to be traded - it's over with him - and young talent is a good way to go.
New Jersey (C-): Sean Williams (3). Great gamble at this point in the 1st round. Sure he smoked weed; which NBA player didn't? Even the great Calvin Johnson (G-Tech, NFL #2) admitted to doing so. But Williams got caught, which makes me think his top-10 skills will never match his ability to adapt in the league.
New Orleans (D+): Julian Wright (2); Adam Haluska (1). Seriously. This is wierd. Wright was a good value, but he looked lost at Kansas at times and tended to defer to big-man Darrell Arthur and little guards Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers. All 3 are better prospects. Haluska was the best player on a bad Iowa team. I doubt another club would've drafted him. STrange.
New York (C): Wilson Chandler (2); Demetris Nichols (3). Actually like Nichols better as a Knicks prospect. Chandler seems like Bobby Simmons - another DePaul product - who was a good glue guy but couldn't really do anything really well (until Michael Jordan taught Simmons how to shoot mid-range jump shots). Is Chandler a 4? a 3? A tweener? Nichols will light it up from the 3-point line. Also added Zach Randolph, who will destroy Eastern conference teams down low. But the cost - Channing Frye is very good - plus the pairing of Randolph and Eddy Curry seems very strange.
Orlando (F): Milovan Rakovic (1). Who? Traded their 1st rounder (Rodney Stuckey) to Detroit for FA Darko Milicic.
Philadelphia (A-): Thaddeus Young (3); Jason Smith (3); Derrick Byars (3); Herbert Hill (1). Really liked the 1st 3 picks for the Sixers. Going young was the way to go. Young needs at least 2 years to get going, but has huge upside. Jason Smith is ready to play right away and is talented in the low-post to get maybe 10 and 6 his first year. Byars I think will be a very solid 2-guard. Doesn't have the hops of a typical guard but can definitely get to the rim and shoot. Hill? Nope.
Phoenix (F-): Alando Tucker (2); D.J. Strawberry (3). Let's get the picks out of the way first. Tucker was overmatched against athletic players in college; even though he found ways to score it's going to be a struggle for him on this run and gun team. Strawberry has zero offense, but is a good ball-handler and could turn into their Bruce Bowen with lock-down D. Nice 2nd round choice. Okay - for the 4th year in a row, the Suns SOLD their 1st round pick. To me, this is completely despicable and a breach of contract with their fans. The people of Phoenix pay tons of money to see their team (which, don't get me wrong, is very good AND entertaining) with the expectation that the team will use its assets to bring a title to Phoenix. Through shrewd drafting and trading, the team has acquired 1st round picks higher than its natural finish. Instead of using these assets to improve the team, they have simply SOLD THE PICKS FOR CASH. To me, the ultimate wrong of a team is trading a basketball asset - such as a first round pick in a loaded draft - for money. It just looks terrible. Moreover, the player they could've had, Rudy Fernandez, could've really helped them. This pattern has to stop.
Portland (A): Greg Oden (5); Rudy Fernandez (3); Petteri Koponen (2); Josh McRoberts (3); Taureen Green (3). Ah, so this is where all the good players went. Oden was the obvious #1 (although I would've chosen Durant). He can anchor the middle for the next 12 years. Has more of an offensive game than he gets credit for. Really like Fernandez, who unlike other Euros, is already a star overseas. Koponen is a total spec player, but with so much young talent on the roster it's not bad. I actually like McRoberts as a solid high-post passer. Could be Brad Miller. Green is a good floor leader but with SO MUCH competition at PG (Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Fernandez, Koponen) it might not work out for him.
Sacramento (B): Spencer Hawes (3). I'm not as high on Hawes as others. I agree he's a skilled big guy, but is he someone you can build around?
San Antonio (A): Tiago Splitter (3); Marcus Williams (2). I had the Spurs pegged on Splitter. A top-10 talent the last 2 years, he's finally unable to withdraw this year and has a ton of experience overseas. What do you get the team that has everything? Another talented foreigner. Nice choice. Marcus Williams surprised me, since he's very athletic but doesn't seem to have a good basketball IQ. We'll see how he develops.
Seattle (A+): Kevin Durant (5); Jeff Green (4). Both are NBA-ready now. It's not often a team lands two of the top 5 prospects in a draft. Kevin Durant is going to be a superstar and ROY. He's an amazing scorer who people forget is very good at rebounding and shot blocking. Definitely needs more strength (apparently I can bench more than Durant) but he's a great talent that will make this team into his own. Green is an exceptional passer and has a great feel for the game. Pairing Green/Durant in the front court will be a bit odd, as they play essentially the same position, but Durant is almost a 6-10 2-guard, so it could work. Also, getting Delonte West is a nice steal in trading Allen for about the highest value possible.
Toronto (F): Giorgis Printezis (1). Will never hear of him again.
Utah (A-): Morris Almond (3); Kyrylo Fesenko (2). Nice choice in Almond. They needed a two-guard who could shoot, and there he was. Fesenko could be a nice flyer.
Washington (B): Nick Young (3); Dominic McGuire (1). Great value with top-10 prospect Young, but are there enough shots for him and Arenas? They needed a big guy, and didn't get one. Young is another scorer that plays no defense - what are they doing here?
1) the Sonics would regret drafting Corey Maggette and immediately trading him (tough call there).
2) Carlos Rogers (the Tennessee basketball player) would be awesome (oops).
3) Richard Jefferson was going to be a star (good call).
4) Andre Iguodala was going to be a star (another good call).
5) Curtis Borchardt would be a serviceable NBA center (uh, no).
You can compare me to NBA-Draft expert Chad Ford.
As you know (Mike, X) I grade each team on its choices and rate the picks on a 1-5 scale:
5 - future All-NBA (Kobe Bryant)
4 - Very good player, All-Star caliber, maybe multiple All-Star appearances (Rashard Lewis)
3 - solid NBA starter/6th man candidate (Leandro Barbosa)
2 - borderline starter/solid bench player (DeShawn Stevenson)
1 - end of the bench/total bust (Nikoloz Tskitisvilii (sp))
Okay, without further ado:
Atlanta (C-): Al Horford (4); Acie Law IV (2). Tough to argue with drafting Horford, who is a better forward than any of the myriad of players on the Hawks (Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Josh Smith, Josh Childress) but Mike Conley could have run this team into an 8th playoff spot in the East. Law had a great college career but strikes me as a Juan-Dixonesque shooter/clutch performer who won't run an NBA team like a college one. Great to have on the team, but at 11? As noted, they needed to turn this pick into All-NBA center Amare Stoudemire. Failure to do so will haunt them for years.
Boston (F): Gabe Pruitt (3); Glen Davis (2). A team that has no idea what they want to do. Last year they shipped what could've been ROY Brandon Roy out for Bass Telfair - and everyone knew Telfair SUCKED. Okay, so they're going for young vets, I get it. Then they refuse to part with young Al Jefferson to get KG. Okay, youth movement, yah! Then they trade the #5 pick, plus very underrated Delonte West and servicable Wally Sczerviak for - Ray Allen?? Ray Allen's a great, All-Star player, but how is Ray Allen going to get them to the title? Just bizzare.
Charlotte (B-): Jared Dudley (2); Jamareo Davidson (1). Traded UNC all-overrated all-athletics forward Brandan Wright to Golden State for Jason Richardson. I actually really liked this move. Charlotte has a bevy of young players (May, Morrison, Felton, Okafor, Hermann, etc.) and getting a fairly young veteran was a good move. High-risk with Davidson - could be boom or busy. I think Dudley's stock rose a ton at the end, he produced well in the Big East but might be overmatched by more athletic 3's in the NBA.
Chicago (C): Joachim Noah (3); Aaron Gray (2); JamesOn Curry (1). 3 picks - MORE youth. This is a team that was 1 low-post scorer from representing the East in the NBA finals. Could they get KG? Jermaine O'Neal? Maybe - instead they end up getting two centers who will compete with recent big-money acquisition Ben Wallace and FA P.J. Brown to figure out someway to keep scores in the 60's - which is where the team needs to be after adding zero scoring in the draft.
Cleveland (INC): no picks. Wow. Shannon Brown needs to get off the bench for the Cavs and start at the 2.
Dallas (C+): Nick Fazekas (3); Rayshawn Terry (1); Renaldus Seibutis (1). Fazekas could be a rotation player immediately - he's got a great shot and will kind of be Dirk-lite off the bench. Better rebounder than people credit him for. Not a bad 2nd round choice at all. Terry is another one of those all-athletic but no-basketball skill players. Can't do much with them. Seibutis? Who?
Denver (INC): Another team with no picks. Who are these guys, the Redskins?
Detroit (B): Rodney Stuckey (3); Aaron Afflalo (2); Sammy Meija (1). Big need is resigning Chauncey Billups. But this team should've rolled the LeBrons in the East finals. Stuckey is a big upgrade over Flip Murray as the backup combo guard. Afflalo is a very solid defender but will have to expand his range to the NBA 3-point line to stick in the league. He was exposed in big games by big-time athletes. He knows how to play, but it's a big athletic disadvantage.
Golden State (B-): Brandan Wright (3); Marco Bellinelli (3); Stephen Lasme (2). Okay, this is a tough call. If Wright is going to be useful anywhere, it's in Golden State, where he can run all day. Again, I get the sense that Wright looks great in workouts - but can't actually play. So that's the negative. On the positive side, scouts have salivated over his potential so it's a good value for Golden State. Bellinelli is a great addition - veteran savvy in the backcourt and Lasme is a good risk as a amazing college shot-blocker. One gets the sense that the Warriors should've traded to get a veteran, not younger, on a team that destroyed the #1 seed Mavericks.
Houston (D): Aaron Brooks (2); Carl Landry (2); Brad Newsley (1). Very wierd. This team can't get out of the 1st round and they choose Brooks in the 1st round. Could make me look bad, but Brooks was a great college player who doesn't seem to have the adaptable game to be an NBA starter. Could be a great firestarter off the bench though. Landry ran his mouth against Oden and then ended up with 0 points and 0 rebounds. Nice dude. Newsley will probably never play in the U.S.
Indiana (F): Stanko Barac (1). They lose this spot for trading the 11th choice for Al Harrington. Barac is total 2nd round European speculation. But they could've used Taurean Green or Jared Jordan.
L.A. Clippers (C+) : Al Thorton (2); Jared Jordan (3). Thorton never impressed me as a high-level all-around player. Maybe as a 6th man he'll be good. Jordan, though, could be a good stop-gap for the loss of Shaun Livingston.
L.A. Lakers (D+): Javaris Crittendon (3); Sun Yue (1); Marc Gasol (1). Crittendon should've stayed in school, 100%. He's going to struggle immediately. Also, didn't they draft Jordan Farmer in the 1st round last year? And does having a point guard matter when Kobe dominates the ball anyway? When trying to keep Kobe happy, they should've looked to more NBA-ready players like Jared Dudley.
Memphis (B+): Mike Conley (4). I'm high on Conley - I think he'll be near the level of Chris Paul in 3 years. Just a natural, fluid PG with a knack for changing speeds and making the right decision. Lacks the physical nature of Deron Williams (still a better choice than Paul) but is the type of player that others (like Oden - soon to be Gasol, Gay, Miller, etc.) will love to play with. Should've gone #3 to Atlanta. Lack of picks drops Memphis to a B+.
Miami (F+): Daequan Cook (1). I'm assigning the total bust label to Cook, who was selfish and not all that great in 1 year at the Ohio State University. I'm not even sure they're upset he left. Lots of talent, but so was "baby-Jordan" Harold Miner.
Milwaukee (B): Yi Jianlian (3); Ronnie Sessions (3). I like Sessions - I think he'll be a decent starting PG or 25 minute backup. Yi - total mystery. Good for Milwaukee in not caving into his ridiculous demands to go to a team with an Asian-American population. They didn't even get to see his workout. Shrouded in mystery! I like drafting a player I've never seen in person. Isn't that going to be awkward? "Hi, I'm Yi. I hate Milawaukee, but I know you want me to be your franchise cornerstone." Awesome.
Minnesota (B-): Corey Brewer (3); Chris Richard (3). Is it just be or does Brewer seem overrated? Everyone thinks he's the next Jefferson, or Pierce. I don't trust his jump-shot and I think he's a bit overrated on defense (but still decent). Richard looked great whenver Florida put him in, and he might instantly become the T-Wolves 2nd best low-post scorer. KG needs to be traded - it's over with him - and young talent is a good way to go.
New Jersey (C-): Sean Williams (3). Great gamble at this point in the 1st round. Sure he smoked weed; which NBA player didn't? Even the great Calvin Johnson (G-Tech, NFL #2) admitted to doing so. But Williams got caught, which makes me think his top-10 skills will never match his ability to adapt in the league.
New Orleans (D+): Julian Wright (2); Adam Haluska (1). Seriously. This is wierd. Wright was a good value, but he looked lost at Kansas at times and tended to defer to big-man Darrell Arthur and little guards Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers. All 3 are better prospects. Haluska was the best player on a bad Iowa team. I doubt another club would've drafted him. STrange.
New York (C): Wilson Chandler (2); Demetris Nichols (3). Actually like Nichols better as a Knicks prospect. Chandler seems like Bobby Simmons - another DePaul product - who was a good glue guy but couldn't really do anything really well (until Michael Jordan taught Simmons how to shoot mid-range jump shots). Is Chandler a 4? a 3? A tweener? Nichols will light it up from the 3-point line. Also added Zach Randolph, who will destroy Eastern conference teams down low. But the cost - Channing Frye is very good - plus the pairing of Randolph and Eddy Curry seems very strange.
Orlando (F): Milovan Rakovic (1). Who? Traded their 1st rounder (Rodney Stuckey) to Detroit for FA Darko Milicic.
Philadelphia (A-): Thaddeus Young (3); Jason Smith (3); Derrick Byars (3); Herbert Hill (1). Really liked the 1st 3 picks for the Sixers. Going young was the way to go. Young needs at least 2 years to get going, but has huge upside. Jason Smith is ready to play right away and is talented in the low-post to get maybe 10 and 6 his first year. Byars I think will be a very solid 2-guard. Doesn't have the hops of a typical guard but can definitely get to the rim and shoot. Hill? Nope.
Phoenix (F-): Alando Tucker (2); D.J. Strawberry (3). Let's get the picks out of the way first. Tucker was overmatched against athletic players in college; even though he found ways to score it's going to be a struggle for him on this run and gun team. Strawberry has zero offense, but is a good ball-handler and could turn into their Bruce Bowen with lock-down D. Nice 2nd round choice. Okay - for the 4th year in a row, the Suns SOLD their 1st round pick. To me, this is completely despicable and a breach of contract with their fans. The people of Phoenix pay tons of money to see their team (which, don't get me wrong, is very good AND entertaining) with the expectation that the team will use its assets to bring a title to Phoenix. Through shrewd drafting and trading, the team has acquired 1st round picks higher than its natural finish. Instead of using these assets to improve the team, they have simply SOLD THE PICKS FOR CASH. To me, the ultimate wrong of a team is trading a basketball asset - such as a first round pick in a loaded draft - for money. It just looks terrible. Moreover, the player they could've had, Rudy Fernandez, could've really helped them. This pattern has to stop.
Portland (A): Greg Oden (5); Rudy Fernandez (3); Petteri Koponen (2); Josh McRoberts (3); Taureen Green (3). Ah, so this is where all the good players went. Oden was the obvious #1 (although I would've chosen Durant). He can anchor the middle for the next 12 years. Has more of an offensive game than he gets credit for. Really like Fernandez, who unlike other Euros, is already a star overseas. Koponen is a total spec player, but with so much young talent on the roster it's not bad. I actually like McRoberts as a solid high-post passer. Could be Brad Miller. Green is a good floor leader but with SO MUCH competition at PG (Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Fernandez, Koponen) it might not work out for him.
Sacramento (B): Spencer Hawes (3). I'm not as high on Hawes as others. I agree he's a skilled big guy, but is he someone you can build around?
San Antonio (A): Tiago Splitter (3); Marcus Williams (2). I had the Spurs pegged on Splitter. A top-10 talent the last 2 years, he's finally unable to withdraw this year and has a ton of experience overseas. What do you get the team that has everything? Another talented foreigner. Nice choice. Marcus Williams surprised me, since he's very athletic but doesn't seem to have a good basketball IQ. We'll see how he develops.
Seattle (A+): Kevin Durant (5); Jeff Green (4). Both are NBA-ready now. It's not often a team lands two of the top 5 prospects in a draft. Kevin Durant is going to be a superstar and ROY. He's an amazing scorer who people forget is very good at rebounding and shot blocking. Definitely needs more strength (apparently I can bench more than Durant) but he's a great talent that will make this team into his own. Green is an exceptional passer and has a great feel for the game. Pairing Green/Durant in the front court will be a bit odd, as they play essentially the same position, but Durant is almost a 6-10 2-guard, so it could work. Also, getting Delonte West is a nice steal in trading Allen for about the highest value possible.
Toronto (F): Giorgis Printezis (1). Will never hear of him again.
Utah (A-): Morris Almond (3); Kyrylo Fesenko (2). Nice choice in Almond. They needed a two-guard who could shoot, and there he was. Fesenko could be a nice flyer.
Washington (B): Nick Young (3); Dominic McGuire (1). Great value with top-10 prospect Young, but are there enough shots for him and Arenas? They needed a big guy, and didn't get one. Young is another scorer that plays no defense - what are they doing here?
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Let the Mocking Begin...
Taking into account all that mumbo jumbo from the previous post, here's my best guess - and this is COMPLETELY a guess - at tonight's first round choices:
1) Portland - Greg Oden
2) Seattle - Kevin Durant.
This whole exercise is a guess and kind of bizzare, but these two are locks for the top-2, and barring injury, long and productive careers. People are in the Oden camp, some in Durant's, for the #1 pick but I actually hope it goes according to form. Durant could save basketball in Seattle for the next 12 years.
3) Atlanta - Yi Jianlian.
Is he 19? Is he 22? Is he 25? Who cares?? Apparently Atlanta choose mediocrity and ticket sales over winning. They need to trade this pick for something - anything - that isn't a rookie. Even if they choose Al Horford (the consensus #3 choice by pundits) they won't be any better next year.
4) Memphis - Al Horford
GM Chris Wallace ran the Boston Celtics into the ground and was rewarded for his mediocrity - no, incompetence. Sounds like a colleague of my wife's. He'll scoop up Horford because of "value."
5) Boston - Corey Brewer
One of the players who tested very low according to Hollinger, but is coveted by many top-10 teams. I happen to think Brewer will be a very good starter - but not ever an all-star - and in this draft you have to shoot for the moon.
6) Milwaukee - Mike Conley, Jr.
Bucks have Mo Williams as a free agent and pick up the best PG in the draft.
7) Minnesota - Brandan Wright
This would be a sure sign that the T-Wolves have a) either traded Garnett or b) are doing everything to piss him off.
8) Charlotte - Jeff Green
The versatile G-town forward is a good replacement for Gerald Wallace, should he walk. The Bobcats - if they are smart - will trade this choice for a veteran who can help NOW.
9) Chicago - Joachim Noah
Everyone has Noah at worst. I'm not sure why Chicago needs another high-energy big man (didn't they just spend $60 million on one?) but they seem to like him.
10) Sacramento - Julian Wright
Least NBA ready (including Yi) of the top 10, but dreaded "upside" makes him difficult to pass up.
11) Atlanta - Nick Young
This pick should be traded to either Seattle or Toronto (for Ridnour or Calderon) but if not, the Hawks can never have too many swingmen, right? Right???
12) Philadelphia - Acie Law III
Wow, does this pick actually make sense? Yes, I think it might... but Law could be gone at 11 if Atlanta isn't typically Atlanta.
13) New Orleans - Thaddeus Young
Insurance for Peja Stojakovic. Yes.
14) L.A. Clippers - Javaris Crittendon
Shaun Livingston's injury makes a new PG a high-priority.
15) Detroit - Jason Smith
Just because everyone else gave them Rodney Stuckey.
16) Washington - Spencer Hawes
Ernie Grunfeld is thrilled to replace the Etan Haywood platoon.
17) New Jersey - Sean Williams
BC pot-smoker (and getting caught) is high-risk, but necessary risk for the Nets to contend in the East.
18) Golden State - Rodney Stuckey
Would love to trade up to get Yi, instead gets NBA-ready guard...uh, another one!
19) L.A. Lakers - Al Thorton
Did Thorton really fall this far? Kobe will be ... a little happy. Can't wait to see him out at Newport Coast promenade next week.
20) Miami - Gabe Pruitt
Need a PG - any PG.
21) Philadelphia - Daequan Cook
Immature Ohio State guard has worlds of potential - could be upgrade over existing hodgepodge of 2-guards.
22) Charlotte - Morris Almond
Another pick to trade, but if they keep it Almond will almost make up for Adam Morrison's atrocious PER and shooting percentages.
23) New York - Jared Dudley
Ah, Isiah. He's actually drafted unknown players and done well (Renaldo Balkman, David Lee). Underrated Dudley is another wing player for the New York system.
24) Phoenix - Marco Bellini
Would love to trade up, or land Garnett. Without that, they get Italian slasher and hope he's their Ginobili.
25) Utah - Josh McRoberts
High-post passer will thrive with Boozer, Williams.
26) Houston - Nick Fazekas
Need a scorer to keep 2nd team afloat with McGrady, Yao on the bench.
27) Detroit - Petteri Koponen
Second first round choice nets them Chauncey insurance.
28) San Antonio - Tiago Splitter
Disappointed over losing Bellini and Koponen and other foreign players, Spurs pick next highest rated foreigner.
29) Phoenix - Wilson Chandler
Again, trying to trade this away (last year they traded away Rajon Rondo for cash) but Chandler is a decent gamble on a guaranteed contract.
30) Philadelphia - Marcus Williams
High ceiling prospect.
I'll report back next week to see how bad I did.
1) Portland - Greg Oden
2) Seattle - Kevin Durant.
This whole exercise is a guess and kind of bizzare, but these two are locks for the top-2, and barring injury, long and productive careers. People are in the Oden camp, some in Durant's, for the #1 pick but I actually hope it goes according to form. Durant could save basketball in Seattle for the next 12 years.
3) Atlanta - Yi Jianlian.
Is he 19? Is he 22? Is he 25? Who cares?? Apparently Atlanta choose mediocrity and ticket sales over winning. They need to trade this pick for something - anything - that isn't a rookie. Even if they choose Al Horford (the consensus #3 choice by pundits) they won't be any better next year.
4) Memphis - Al Horford
GM Chris Wallace ran the Boston Celtics into the ground and was rewarded for his mediocrity - no, incompetence. Sounds like a colleague of my wife's. He'll scoop up Horford because of "value."
5) Boston - Corey Brewer
One of the players who tested very low according to Hollinger, but is coveted by many top-10 teams. I happen to think Brewer will be a very good starter - but not ever an all-star - and in this draft you have to shoot for the moon.
6) Milwaukee - Mike Conley, Jr.
Bucks have Mo Williams as a free agent and pick up the best PG in the draft.
7) Minnesota - Brandan Wright
This would be a sure sign that the T-Wolves have a) either traded Garnett or b) are doing everything to piss him off.
8) Charlotte - Jeff Green
The versatile G-town forward is a good replacement for Gerald Wallace, should he walk. The Bobcats - if they are smart - will trade this choice for a veteran who can help NOW.
9) Chicago - Joachim Noah
Everyone has Noah at worst. I'm not sure why Chicago needs another high-energy big man (didn't they just spend $60 million on one?) but they seem to like him.
10) Sacramento - Julian Wright
Least NBA ready (including Yi) of the top 10, but dreaded "upside" makes him difficult to pass up.
11) Atlanta - Nick Young
This pick should be traded to either Seattle or Toronto (for Ridnour or Calderon) but if not, the Hawks can never have too many swingmen, right? Right???
12) Philadelphia - Acie Law III
Wow, does this pick actually make sense? Yes, I think it might... but Law could be gone at 11 if Atlanta isn't typically Atlanta.
13) New Orleans - Thaddeus Young
Insurance for Peja Stojakovic. Yes.
14) L.A. Clippers - Javaris Crittendon
Shaun Livingston's injury makes a new PG a high-priority.
15) Detroit - Jason Smith
Just because everyone else gave them Rodney Stuckey.
16) Washington - Spencer Hawes
Ernie Grunfeld is thrilled to replace the Etan Haywood platoon.
17) New Jersey - Sean Williams
BC pot-smoker (and getting caught) is high-risk, but necessary risk for the Nets to contend in the East.
18) Golden State - Rodney Stuckey
Would love to trade up to get Yi, instead gets NBA-ready guard...uh, another one!
19) L.A. Lakers - Al Thorton
Did Thorton really fall this far? Kobe will be ... a little happy. Can't wait to see him out at Newport Coast promenade next week.
20) Miami - Gabe Pruitt
Need a PG - any PG.
21) Philadelphia - Daequan Cook
Immature Ohio State guard has worlds of potential - could be upgrade over existing hodgepodge of 2-guards.
22) Charlotte - Morris Almond
Another pick to trade, but if they keep it Almond will almost make up for Adam Morrison's atrocious PER and shooting percentages.
23) New York - Jared Dudley
Ah, Isiah. He's actually drafted unknown players and done well (Renaldo Balkman, David Lee). Underrated Dudley is another wing player for the New York system.
24) Phoenix - Marco Bellini
Would love to trade up, or land Garnett. Without that, they get Italian slasher and hope he's their Ginobili.
25) Utah - Josh McRoberts
High-post passer will thrive with Boozer, Williams.
26) Houston - Nick Fazekas
Need a scorer to keep 2nd team afloat with McGrady, Yao on the bench.
27) Detroit - Petteri Koponen
Second first round choice nets them Chauncey insurance.
28) San Antonio - Tiago Splitter
Disappointed over losing Bellini and Koponen and other foreign players, Spurs pick next highest rated foreigner.
29) Phoenix - Wilson Chandler
Again, trying to trade this away (last year they traded away Rajon Rondo for cash) but Chandler is a decent gamble on a guaranteed contract.
30) Philadelphia - Marcus Williams
High ceiling prospect.
I'll report back next week to see how bad I did.
Pre-2007 NBA Draft (Mock Me!)
As some of you know, I've been a sucker for the NBA draft for at least 20 years now. In no other sport are the fortunes of a team so radically altered by weighted combination of chance (80%) and savvy (20%). On ping pong balls are a city's civic pride raised or crushed. Witness (pun intended) the rise of Cleveland - CLEVELAND - as a sports city after the lottery granted them Ohio-native LeBron James. On the other hand, losing the 1997 Draft Lottery and the 2007 Draft Lottery has completely destroyed the psyche of at least one Bostonian.
This year's draft - the first following the collectively bargained rule requiring all American high-schoolers to be either 19 or have finished 1 year in college before being drafted - is possibly the most anticipated NBA selection process since the 2003 Draft yielded all-pros LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. Additionally, the intrigue surrounding the draft includes the spector of huge names being traded - Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire and Jermaine O'Neal. All of which will probably lead to the most watched draft in a long time. Andrea Bargnani it's not.
One of the more interesting pieces of pre-draft fodder was ESPN's John Hollinger's study on predicting the NBA potential of collegiate players. Granted, you need ESPN Insider to read the article, but to summarize, Hollinger attempted to "reverse engineer" the past 5 drafts to isolate the predictors for NBA success. Some would call this simply econometrics or statistics, in that he simply looked for significant factors in his formula. However he came up with his formula, he posits that the factors predicting NBA success are, in order: Age, Steals, Blocks, Rebounds, 3-Pointers and Pure-Point Rating.
Below is Hollinger's chart comparing players of the last 5 drafts.
* among collegians only
* among collegians only
* among collegians only
* among collegians only
* among collegians only
Here's is Hollinger's predictor for 2007:
Very interesting. See my Mock Draft to follow...
This year's draft - the first following the collectively bargained rule requiring all American high-schoolers to be either 19 or have finished 1 year in college before being drafted - is possibly the most anticipated NBA selection process since the 2003 Draft yielded all-pros LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. Additionally, the intrigue surrounding the draft includes the spector of huge names being traded - Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire and Jermaine O'Neal. All of which will probably lead to the most watched draft in a long time. Andrea Bargnani it's not.
One of the more interesting pieces of pre-draft fodder was ESPN's John Hollinger's study on predicting the NBA potential of collegiate players. Granted, you need ESPN Insider to read the article, but to summarize, Hollinger attempted to "reverse engineer" the past 5 drafts to isolate the predictors for NBA success. Some would call this simply econometrics or statistics, in that he simply looked for significant factors in his formula. However he came up with his formula, he posits that the factors predicting NBA success are, in order: Age, Steals, Blocks, Rebounds, 3-Pointers and Pure-Point Rating.
Below is Hollinger's chart comparing players of the last 5 drafts.
COMPARISON TO RECENT DRAFTS
| 2002 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Carlos Boozer | Duke | 711.0 | 26 | Jay Williams |
| 2. | Drew Gooden | Kansas | 678.6 | 3 | Mike Dunleavy Jr. |
| 3. | Chris Wilcox | Maryland | 608.6 | 5 | Drew Gooden |
| 4. | Curtis Borchardt | Stanford | 598.1 | 12 | Dajuan Wagner |
| 5. | Mike Dunleavy Jr. | Duke | 561.0 | 2 | Chris Wilcox |
| 6. | Jay Williams | Duke | 515.0 | 1 | Caron Butler |
| 7. | Jared Jeffries | Indiana | 503.3 | 7 | Jared Jeffries |
| 8. | Udonis Haslem | Florida | 498.9 | Undrafted | Melvin Ely |
| 9. | Vincent Yarbrough | Tennessee | 498.5 | 24 | Marcus Haislip |
| 10. | Caron Butler | UConn | 495.0 | 6 | Fred Jones |
| 11. | Tayshaun Prince | Kentucky | 480.1 | 16 | Juan Dixon |
| 12. | Casey Jacobsen | Stanford | 471.5 | 15 | Curtis Borchardt |
* among collegians only
Notables: Fred Jones (428.9, 19th); Juan Dixon (390.6, 25th); Jannero Pargo (377.6, 30th); John Salmons (360.1); Matt Barnes (352.0); Dan Gadzuric (285.5); Darius Songaila (249.3); Dan Dickau (215.0)
| 2003 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Carmelo Anthony | Syracuse | 781.3 | 1 | Carmelo Anthony |
| 2. | Mike Sweetney | Georgetown | 702.8 | 7 | Chris Bosh |
| 3. | Chris Bosh | Georgia Tech | 688.4 | 2 | Dwyane Wade |
| 4. | Dwyane Wade | Marquette | 600.4 | 3 | Chris Kaman |
| 5. | Nick Collison | Kansas | 553.4 | 9 | Kirk Hinrich |
| 6. | T.J. Ford | Texas | 549.5 | 6 | T.J. Ford |
| 7. | Kirk Hinrich | Kansas | 504.0 | 5 | Michael Sweetney |
| 8. | Josh Howard | Wake Forest | 501.4 | 17 | Jarvis Hayes |
| 9. | Kyle Korver | Creighton | 499.7 | 31 | Nick Collison |
| 10. | David West | Xavier | 494.7 | 14 | Marcus Banks |
| 11. | Troy Bell | Boston College | 481.5 | 13 | Luke Ridnour |
| 12. | Jarvis Hayes | Georgia | 478.9 | 8 | Reece Gaines |
* among collegians only
Notables: Marquis Daniels (474.3, 13th); Marcus Banks (472.3, 15th); Chris Kaman (462.7, 16th) Matt Carroll (447.5, 18th); Quinton Ross (443.5, 19th); Luke Ridnour (442.3, 20th); Matt Bonner (440.4, 21st); Maurice Williams (428.5, 23rd); Luke Walton (420.2, 25th); Keith Bogans (362.8); Steve Blake (361.8); Dahntay Jones (358.7); Brian Cook (349.9); Jason Kapono (337.2); James Jones (333.1)
| 2004 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Luol Deng | Duke | 650.7 | 5 | Emeka Okafor |
| 2. | Delonte West | Saint Joseph's | 626.9 | 12 | Ben Gordon |
| 3. | Devin Harris | Wisconsin | 614.6 | 3 | Devin Harris |
| 4. | Emeka Okafor | Connecticut | 579.4 | 1 | Josh Childress |
| 5. | Luke Jackson | Oregon | 558.5 | 8 | Luol Deng |
| 6. | Josh Childress | Stanford | 530.0 | 4 | Rafael Araujo |
| 7. | Ben Gordon | Connecticut | 529.1 | 2 | Andre Iguodala |
| 8. | Kris Humphries | Minnesota | 527.6 | 9 | Luke Jackson |
| 9. | Jameer Nelson | Saint Joseph's | 522.2 | 11 | Kris Humphries |
| 10. | Kevin Martin | Western Carolina | 517.7 | 14 | Kirk Snyder |
| 11. | Andre Iguodala | Arizona | 509.5 | 7 | Jameer Nelson |
| 12. | Andre Emmett | Texas Tech | 472.3 | 18 | Delonte West |
* among collegians only
Notables: Kirk Snyder (464.5, 14th); Chris Duhon (454.3, 15th); David Harrison (432.0, 21st) Tony Allen (377.0, 27th); Royal Ivey (341.8)
| 2005 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Chris Paul | Wake Forest | 705.9 | 4 | Andrew Bogut |
| 2. | Marvin Williams | North Carolina | 697.6 | 2 | Marvin Williams |
| 3. | Sean May | North Carolina | 690.4 | 9 | Deron Williams |
| 4. | Rashad McCants | North Carolina | 639.4 | 10 | Chris Paul |
| 5. | Andrew Bogut | Utah | 579.7 | 1 | Raymond Felton |
| 6. | Channing Frye | Arizona | 579.7 | 7 | Charlie Villanueva |
| 7. | Raymond Felton | North Carolina | 562.1 | 5 | Channing Frye |
| 8. | Chris Taft | Pittsburgh | 559.7 | 30 | Ike Diogu |
| 9. | Danny Granger | New Mexico | 554.4 | 13 | Sean May |
| 10. | Nate Robinson | Washington | 538.0 | 16 | Rashad McCants |
| 11. | Deron Williams | Illinois | 523.7 | 3 | Antoine Wright |
| 12. | Jarrett Jack | Georgia Tech | 523.3 | 17 | Joey Graham |
* among collegians only
Notables: Charlie Villanueva (521.9, 13th); David Lee (482.7, 19th); Kelenna Azubuike (454.2, 25th) Salim Stoudamire (449.4, 26th); Francisco Garcia (448.8, 27th); Daniel Ewing (446.3, 28th); Chuck Hayes (443.9, 30th); Ronny Turiaf (442.7); Ryan Gomes (430.9); Hakim Warrick (427.8); Luther Head (419.7) Ike Diogu (402.5); Antoine Wright (387.8); Joey Graham (353.8); Jason Maxiell (342.5); Linas Kleiza (308.4)
| 2006 Draft: Top 12 rated players | |||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | PICKED* | ACTUAL ORDER* |
| 1. | Tyrus Thomas | LSU | 756.8 | 3 | LaMarcus Aldridge |
| 2. | Shelden Williams | Duke | 583.1 | 4 | Adam Morrison |
| 3. | Brandon Roy | Washington | 557.6 | 5 | Tyrus Thomas |
| 4. | Ronnie Brewer | Arkansas | 555.8 | 11 | Shelden Williams |
| 5. | Rudy Gay | Connecticut | 552.1 | 7 | Brandon Roy |
| 6. | Patrick O'Bryant | Bradley | 551.9 | 8 | Randy Foye |
| 7. | Paul Davis | Michigan State | 546.6 | 28 | Rudy Gay |
| 8. | Kyle Lowry | Villanova | 538.6 | 20 | Patrick O'Bryant |
| 9. | Rajon Rondo | Kentucky | 534.5 | 17 | J.J. Redick |
| 10. | LaMarcus Aldridge | Texas | 524.3 | 1 | Hilton Armstrong |
| 11. | Quincy Douby | Rutgers | 516.8 | 15 | Ronnie Brewer |
| 12. | Marcus Williams | Connecticut | 512.1 | 18 | Cedric Simmons |
* among collegians only
Notables: Randy Foye (502.3, 13th); J.J. Redick (479.6, 18th); Rodney Carney (469.4, 19th); Adam Morrison (466.3, 20th); Renaldo Balkman (458.3, 23rd); Daniel Gibson (456.3, 25th); Jordan Farmar (450.0, 27th); Paul Millsap (440.0); Josh Boone (414.8); Craig Smith (377.8); Hilton Armstrong (304.6)
Here's is Hollinger's predictor for 2007:
| 2007 Draft: Top 30 rated collegians, plus other notables | ||||
| NO. | PLAYER | SCHOOL | SCORE | CHAD FORD'S RANKING |
| 1. | Kevin Durant | Texas | 870.7 | 2 |
| 2. | Greg Oden | Ohio State | 667.9 | 1 |
| 3. | Mike Conley Jr. | Ohio State | 637.9 | 7 |
| 4. | Thaddeus Young | Georgia Tech | 604.2 | 14 |
| 5. | Brandan Wright | North Carolina | 601.4 | 8 |
| 6. | Al Horford | Florida | 601.0 | 3 |
| 7. | Nick Fazekas | Nevada | 594.3 | 35 |
| 8. | Josh McRoberts | Duke | 566.7 | 26 |
| 9. | Rodney Stuckey | E. Washington | 557.7 | 16 |
| 10. | Jared Dudley | Boston College | 542.6 | 31 |
| 11. | Joakim Noah | Florida | 528.6 | 9 |
| 12. | Glen Davis | LSU | 521.0 | 25 |
| 13. | Sean Williams | Boston College | 511.3 | 20 |
| 14. | Jeff Green | Georgetown | 505.5 | 6 |
| 15. | Kyle Visser | Wake Forest | 503.5 | 57 |
| 16. | Herbert Hill | Providence | 503.0 | 49 |
| 17. | Javaris Crittenton | Georgia Tech | 492.2 | 18 |
| 18. | Wilson Chandler | DePaul | 483.1 | 30 |
| 19. | Julian Wright | Kansas | 481.4 | 11 |
| 20. | Daequan Cook | Ohio State | 470.0 | 27 |
| 21. | D.J. Strawberry | Maryland | 465.5 | 52 |
| 22. | Jason Smith | Colorado State | 464.9 | 17 |
| 23. | Alando Tucker | Wisconsin | 464.3 | 41 |
| 24. | Corey Brewer | Florida | 462.4 | 5 |
| 25. | Al Thornton | Florida State | 447.8 | 10 |
| 26. | Marcus Williams | Arizona | 445.8 | 33 |
| 27. | Acie Law | Texas A&M | 445.2 | 15 |
| 28. | Aaron Gray | Pittsburgh | 440.5 | 38 |
| 29. | Zabian Dowdell | Virginia Tech | 438.2 | 34 |
| 30. | Spencer Hawes | Washington | 433.9 | 12 |
| Other notables | ||||
| Morris Almond | Rice | 425.6 | 22 | |
| Derrick Byars | Vanderbilt | 421.9 | 28 | |
| Gabe Pruitt | USC | 421.0 | 21 | |
| Nick Young | USC | 383.8 | 13 | |
| Taurean Green | Florida | 350.4 | 39 | |
| Arron Afflalo | UCLA | 336.1 | 32 | |
| Ramon Sessions | Nevada | 334.7 | 37 | |
Very interesting. See my Mock Draft to follow...
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Yovanni Gallardo and MLB Thinking
The Brewers are considering sending hot-shot prospect Yovanni Gallardo, he of the 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 2 sterling starts, to the bullpen when Chris Capuano returns. Here's what I wrote my friend and fantasy baseball co-owner:
There's absolutely NO REASON to send Gallardo to the pen. If they do this, the Brewers are hurting themselves in every possible way. I would probably prefer that Gallardo go back to the minors.
1) Gallardo is their 2nd best pitcher overall - Ben Sheets - and gives them the absolute best chance to win now. They are built to win this year, in a very weak division and league in general. Putting Sheets and Gallardo out there gives them a good chance to win 40% of the time, not to mention Capuano and whoever else they run out there. Allowing Vargas and Bush to start makes NO SENSE.
2) Pitching Gallardo out of the pen is nothing if not damaging for his career, long term. I can understand you want to cut his innings - but yanking him in and out of the game, pitching everyday, and for short stints, is definitely not the ideal career path for a future staff ace. This idiotic.
3) Starting pitching is a valuable commodity. If you have surplus - TRADE IT. Bush or Vargas would probably fetch a nice bench hitter or good middle reliever (say, Heath Bell) that would improve the Brewers by leaps and bounds.
Conventional baseball wisdom is idiotic. Everyone is so afraid to go against the grain. Just an abject lack of common sense in terms of managing and player moves just kills me about baseball. If we managed a law firm or a company the way some teams manage their teams, our economy would tank.
No one wants to try something different, so we can a bunch of automotons just cycling through old baseball addages. And most time they just shoot themselves in the foot, or it takes repeated beatings to get the lesson through. Here's just a few examples:
1) It took the Red Sox months to move Julio Lugo, who is hitting under .200 and has an OBP hovering right above .220, to the 9th spot in the lineup.
2) It took the Nationals 3 months to move Felipe Lopez, who has an OBP of .275, from the leadoff spot to #2. Why? Because he's a "leadoff hitter."
3) The Brewers allowed Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino to platoon at 3B despite the fact that Ryan Braun had an OPS over 1.100 at AAA and hit major league pitching in spring training.
4) The Marlins traded a good prospect, Yuermio Petitt, for Jorge Julio. Then, they allowed Julio to blow 4 saves in spectacular fashion. Then, they traded Julio for BH Kim. Unbelievable.
5) The Phillies yanked their staff ace out of the rotation after one - ONE - bad start and made him a middle reliever turned closer when their real closer got hurt. Then they pitched him almost everyday for a month until he broke down.
Those are just the ones I can think of.
There's absolutely NO REASON to send Gallardo to the pen. If they do this, the Brewers are hurting themselves in every possible way. I would probably prefer that Gallardo go back to the minors.
1) Gallardo is their 2nd best pitcher overall - Ben Sheets - and gives them the absolute best chance to win now. They are built to win this year, in a very weak division and league in general. Putting Sheets and Gallardo out there gives them a good chance to win 40% of the time, not to mention Capuano and whoever else they run out there. Allowing Vargas and Bush to start makes NO SENSE.
2) Pitching Gallardo out of the pen is nothing if not damaging for his career, long term. I can understand you want to cut his innings - but yanking him in and out of the game, pitching everyday, and for short stints, is definitely not the ideal career path for a future staff ace. This idiotic.
3) Starting pitching is a valuable commodity. If you have surplus - TRADE IT. Bush or Vargas would probably fetch a nice bench hitter or good middle reliever (say, Heath Bell) that would improve the Brewers by leaps and bounds.
Conventional baseball wisdom is idiotic. Everyone is so afraid to go against the grain. Just an abject lack of common sense in terms of managing and player moves just kills me about baseball. If we managed a law firm or a company the way some teams manage their teams, our economy would tank.
No one wants to try something different, so we can a bunch of automotons just cycling through old baseball addages. And most time they just shoot themselves in the foot, or it takes repeated beatings to get the lesson through. Here's just a few examples:
1) It took the Red Sox months to move Julio Lugo, who is hitting under .200 and has an OBP hovering right above .220, to the 9th spot in the lineup.
2) It took the Nationals 3 months to move Felipe Lopez, who has an OBP of .275, from the leadoff spot to #2. Why? Because he's a "leadoff hitter."
3) The Brewers allowed Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino to platoon at 3B despite the fact that Ryan Braun had an OPS over 1.100 at AAA and hit major league pitching in spring training.
4) The Marlins traded a good prospect, Yuermio Petitt, for Jorge Julio. Then, they allowed Julio to blow 4 saves in spectacular fashion. Then, they traded Julio for BH Kim. Unbelievable.
5) The Phillies yanked their staff ace out of the rotation after one - ONE - bad start and made him a middle reliever turned closer when their real closer got hurt. Then they pitched him almost everyday for a month until he broke down.
Those are just the ones I can think of.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
The Arenas Quandry
For the past 2 years, despite Washington's love affair with the Redskins, the biggest sports story is our Washington Wizards point guard, Gilbert Arenas. In equal parts due to his quirky personality and his exciting, varied basketball skills, Arenas has become this city's biggest sports star, eclipsing even equally exciting personalities like Clinton Portis and Alexander Ovechkin. Despite his season ending knee injury this past season, the Wizards in January and February of 2007 played like the best team in the Eastern Conference and, had they continued that play, might have advanced near the Eastern Conference finals.
Now, of course, Gilbert wants to opt out of his contract after 2007 and become a free agent. Players like Arenas rarely, if ever, hit free agency, and despite his stated intention of returning to Washington, expect every NBA team with or without salary cap space to make an end run at acquiring him. While Washington has the advantage of a 6th year and added money, will that be enough?
Arenas has frequently stated his desire to see the team improved before he commits to a nother long-term deal with Washington. While a franchise never wants to be held hostage by one player (see, Kobe, Lakers) the Wizards in this instance almost have to acquiesce to their stars' demands. The question is, how?
With next season a huge litmus test for the Wizards, their goal should be to advance as far as possible in the playoffs, period. No "building for the future." You only get a chance at the "future" in the NBA for a 4-5 years window every 15 years (or if you're the Wizards, 20 years) or so. With Arenas, Butler and Jamison, the Wizards are positioned to make some noise in the East, with draft stars Oden and Durant likely banished to Portland and Seattle, respectively. So, with the 16th pick, the Wizards need to pick a player who can contribute NOW. No Tiago Splitter, no Thaddeus Young, no Javaris Crittendon. They need a player who is ready to step in and give them something.
Pecherov (our 1st round pick last year) is coming here this season; with him and a steady draft choice (i.e. Marco Bellini) the Wizards can compete with anyone in the East. A trip to the Eastern Conference Finals may be the only thing that keeps Gilbert in those hideous bronze uniforms.
Now, of course, Gilbert wants to opt out of his contract after 2007 and become a free agent. Players like Arenas rarely, if ever, hit free agency, and despite his stated intention of returning to Washington, expect every NBA team with or without salary cap space to make an end run at acquiring him. While Washington has the advantage of a 6th year and added money, will that be enough?
Arenas has frequently stated his desire to see the team improved before he commits to a nother long-term deal with Washington. While a franchise never wants to be held hostage by one player (see, Kobe, Lakers) the Wizards in this instance almost have to acquiesce to their stars' demands. The question is, how?
With next season a huge litmus test for the Wizards, their goal should be to advance as far as possible in the playoffs, period. No "building for the future." You only get a chance at the "future" in the NBA for a 4-5 years window every 15 years (or if you're the Wizards, 20 years) or so. With Arenas, Butler and Jamison, the Wizards are positioned to make some noise in the East, with draft stars Oden and Durant likely banished to Portland and Seattle, respectively. So, with the 16th pick, the Wizards need to pick a player who can contribute NOW. No Tiago Splitter, no Thaddeus Young, no Javaris Crittendon. They need a player who is ready to step in and give them something.
Pecherov (our 1st round pick last year) is coming here this season; with him and a steady draft choice (i.e. Marco Bellini) the Wizards can compete with anyone in the East. A trip to the Eastern Conference Finals may be the only thing that keeps Gilbert in those hideous bronze uniforms.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)