Let the Mocking Begin...

Taking into account all that mumbo jumbo from the previous post, here's my best guess - and this is COMPLETELY a guess - at tonight's first round choices:

1) Portland - Greg Oden
2) Seattle - Kevin Durant.

This whole exercise is a guess and kind of bizzare, but these two are locks for the top-2, and barring injury, long and productive careers. People are in the Oden camp, some in Durant's, for the #1 pick but I actually hope it goes according to form. Durant could save basketball in Seattle for the next 12 years.

3) Atlanta - Yi Jianlian.

Is he 19? Is he 22? Is he 25? Who cares?? Apparently Atlanta choose mediocrity and ticket sales over winning. They need to trade this pick for something - anything - that isn't a rookie. Even if they choose Al Horford (the consensus #3 choice by pundits) they won't be any better next year.

4) Memphis - Al Horford

GM Chris Wallace ran the Boston Celtics into the ground and was rewarded for his mediocrity - no, incompetence. Sounds like a colleague of my wife's. He'll scoop up Horford because of "value."

5) Boston - Corey Brewer

One of the players who tested very low according to Hollinger, but is coveted by many top-10 teams. I happen to think Brewer will be a very good starter - but not ever an all-star - and in this draft you have to shoot for the moon.

6) Milwaukee - Mike Conley, Jr.

Bucks have Mo Williams as a free agent and pick up the best PG in the draft.

7) Minnesota - Brandan Wright

This would be a sure sign that the T-Wolves have a) either traded Garnett or b) are doing everything to piss him off.

8) Charlotte - Jeff Green

The versatile G-town forward is a good replacement for Gerald Wallace, should he walk. The Bobcats - if they are smart - will trade this choice for a veteran who can help NOW.

9) Chicago - Joachim Noah

Everyone has Noah at worst. I'm not sure why Chicago needs another high-energy big man (didn't they just spend $60 million on one?) but they seem to like him.

10) Sacramento - Julian Wright

Least NBA ready (including Yi) of the top 10, but dreaded "upside" makes him difficult to pass up.

11) Atlanta - Nick Young

This pick should be traded to either Seattle or Toronto (for Ridnour or Calderon) but if not, the Hawks can never have too many swingmen, right? Right???

12) Philadelphia - Acie Law III

Wow, does this pick actually make sense? Yes, I think it might... but Law could be gone at 11 if Atlanta isn't typically Atlanta.

13) New Orleans - Thaddeus Young

Insurance for Peja Stojakovic. Yes.

14) L.A. Clippers - Javaris Crittendon

Shaun Livingston's injury makes a new PG a high-priority.

15) Detroit - Jason Smith

Just because everyone else gave them Rodney Stuckey.

16) Washington - Spencer Hawes

Ernie Grunfeld is thrilled to replace the Etan Haywood platoon.

17) New Jersey - Sean Williams

BC pot-smoker (and getting caught) is high-risk, but necessary risk for the Nets to contend in the East.

18) Golden State - Rodney Stuckey

Would love to trade up to get Yi, instead gets NBA-ready guard...uh, another one!

19) L.A. Lakers - Al Thorton

Did Thorton really fall this far? Kobe will be ... a little happy. Can't wait to see him out at Newport Coast promenade next week.

20) Miami - Gabe Pruitt

Need a PG - any PG.

21) Philadelphia - Daequan Cook

Immature Ohio State guard has worlds of potential - could be upgrade over existing hodgepodge of 2-guards.

22) Charlotte - Morris Almond

Another pick to trade, but if they keep it Almond will almost make up for Adam Morrison's atrocious PER and shooting percentages.

23) New York - Jared Dudley

Ah, Isiah. He's actually drafted unknown players and done well (Renaldo Balkman, David Lee). Underrated Dudley is another wing player for the New York system.

24) Phoenix - Marco Bellini

Would love to trade up, or land Garnett. Without that, they get Italian slasher and hope he's their Ginobili.

25) Utah - Josh McRoberts

High-post passer will thrive with Boozer, Williams.

26) Houston - Nick Fazekas

Need a scorer to keep 2nd team afloat with McGrady, Yao on the bench.

27) Detroit - Petteri Koponen

Second first round choice nets them Chauncey insurance.

28) San Antonio - Tiago Splitter

Disappointed over losing Bellini and Koponen and other foreign players, Spurs pick next highest rated foreigner.

29) Phoenix - Wilson Chandler

Again, trying to trade this away (last year they traded away Rajon Rondo for cash) but Chandler is a decent gamble on a guaranteed contract.

30) Philadelphia - Marcus Williams

High ceiling prospect.

I'll report back next week to see how bad I did.

Pre-2007 NBA Draft (Mock Me!)

As some of you know, I've been a sucker for the NBA draft for at least 20 years now. In no other sport are the fortunes of a team so radically altered by weighted combination of chance (80%) and savvy (20%). On ping pong balls are a city's civic pride raised or crushed. Witness (pun intended) the rise of Cleveland - CLEVELAND - as a sports city after the lottery granted them Ohio-native LeBron James. On the other hand, losing the 1997 Draft Lottery and the 2007 Draft Lottery has completely destroyed the psyche of at least one Bostonian.

This year's draft - the first following the collectively bargained rule requiring all American high-schoolers to be either 19 or have finished 1 year in college before being drafted - is possibly the most anticipated NBA selection process since the 2003 Draft yielded all-pros LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. Additionally, the intrigue surrounding the draft includes the spector of huge names being traded - Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire and Jermaine O'Neal. All of which will probably lead to the most watched draft in a long time. Andrea Bargnani it's not.

One of the more interesting pieces of pre-draft fodder was ESPN's John Hollinger's study on predicting the NBA potential of collegiate players. Granted, you need ESPN Insider to read the article, but to summarize, Hollinger attempted to "reverse engineer" the past 5 drafts to isolate the predictors for NBA success. Some would call this simply econometrics or statistics, in that he simply looked for significant factors in his formula. However he came up with his formula, he posits that the factors predicting NBA success are, in order: Age, Steals, Blocks, Rebounds, 3-Pointers and Pure-Point Rating.

Below is Hollinger's chart comparing players of the last 5 drafts.

COMPARISON TO RECENT DRAFTS

2002 Draft: Top 12 rated players
NO.	PLAYER	SCHOOL	SCORE	PICKED*	ACTUAL ORDER*
1.	Carlos Boozer	Duke	711.0	26	Jay Williams
2.	Drew Gooden	Kansas	678.6	3	Mike Dunleavy Jr.
3.	Chris Wilcox	Maryland	608.6	5	Drew Gooden
4.	Curtis Borchardt	Stanford	598.1	12	Dajuan Wagner
5.	Mike Dunleavy Jr.	Duke	561.0	2	Chris Wilcox
6.	Jay Williams	Duke	515.0	1	Caron Butler
7.	Jared Jeffries	Indiana	503.3	7	Jared Jeffries
8.	Udonis Haslem	Florida	498.9	Undrafted	Melvin Ely
9.	Vincent Yarbrough	Tennessee	498.5	24	Marcus Haislip
10.	Caron Butler	UConn	495.0	6	Fred Jones
11.	Tayshaun Prince	Kentucky	480.1	16	Juan Dixon
12.	Casey Jacobsen	Stanford	471.5	15	Curtis Borchardt

* among collegians only

Notables: Fred Jones (428.9, 19th); Juan Dixon (390.6, 25th); Jannero Pargo (377.6, 30th); John Salmons (360.1); Matt Barnes (352.0); Dan Gadzuric (285.5); Darius Songaila (249.3); Dan Dickau (215.0)

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2003 Draft: Top 12 rated players
NO.	PLAYER	SCHOOL	SCORE	PICKED*	ACTUAL ORDER*
1.	Carmelo Anthony	Syracuse	781.3	1	Carmelo Anthony
2.	Mike Sweetney	Georgetown	702.8	7	Chris Bosh
3.	Chris Bosh	Georgia Tech	688.4	2	Dwyane Wade
4.	Dwyane Wade	Marquette	600.4	3	Chris Kaman
5.	Nick Collison	Kansas	553.4	9	Kirk Hinrich
6.	T.J. Ford	Texas	549.5	6	T.J. Ford
7.	Kirk Hinrich	Kansas	504.0	5	Michael Sweetney
8.	Josh Howard	Wake Forest	501.4	17	Jarvis Hayes
9.	Kyle Korver	Creighton	499.7	31	Nick Collison
10.	David West	Xavier	494.7	14	Marcus Banks
11.	Troy Bell	Boston College	481.5	13	Luke Ridnour
12.	Jarvis Hayes	Georgia	478.9	8	Reece Gaines

* among collegians only

Notables: Marquis Daniels (474.3, 13th); Marcus Banks (472.3, 15th); Chris Kaman (462.7, 16th) Matt Carroll (447.5, 18th); Quinton Ross (443.5, 19th); Luke Ridnour (442.3, 20th); Matt Bonner (440.4, 21st); Maurice Williams (428.5, 23rd); Luke Walton (420.2, 25th); Keith Bogans (362.8); Steve Blake (361.8); Dahntay Jones (358.7); Brian Cook (349.9); Jason Kapono (337.2); James Jones (333.1)

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2004 Draft: Top 12 rated players
NO.	PLAYER	SCHOOL	SCORE	PICKED*	ACTUAL ORDER*
1.	Luol Deng	Duke	650.7	5	Emeka Okafor
2.	Delonte West	Saint Joseph's	626.9	12	Ben Gordon
3.	Devin Harris	Wisconsin	614.6	3	Devin Harris
4.	Emeka Okafor	Connecticut	579.4	1	Josh Childress
5.	Luke Jackson	Oregon	558.5	8	Luol Deng
6.	Josh Childress	Stanford	530.0	4	Rafael Araujo
7.	Ben Gordon	Connecticut	529.1	2	Andre Iguodala
8.	Kris Humphries	Minnesota	527.6	9	Luke Jackson
9.	Jameer Nelson	Saint Joseph's	522.2	11	Kris Humphries
10.	Kevin Martin	Western Carolina	517.7	14	Kirk Snyder
11.	Andre Iguodala	Arizona	509.5	7	Jameer Nelson
12.	Andre Emmett	Texas Tech	472.3	18	Delonte West

* among collegians only

Notables: Kirk Snyder (464.5, 14th); Chris Duhon (454.3, 15th); David Harrison (432.0, 21st) Tony Allen (377.0, 27th); Royal Ivey (341.8)

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2005 Draft: Top 12 rated players
NO.	PLAYER	SCHOOL	SCORE	PICKED*	ACTUAL ORDER*
1.	Chris Paul	Wake Forest	705.9	4	Andrew Bogut
2.	Marvin Williams	North Carolina	697.6	2	Marvin Williams
3.	Sean May	North Carolina	690.4	9	Deron Williams
4.	Rashad McCants	North Carolina	639.4	10	Chris Paul
5.	Andrew Bogut	Utah	579.7	1	Raymond Felton
6.	Channing Frye	Arizona	579.7	7	Charlie Villanueva
7.	Raymond Felton	North Carolina	562.1	5	Channing Frye
8.	Chris Taft	Pittsburgh	559.7	30	Ike Diogu
9.	Danny Granger	New Mexico	554.4	13	Sean May
10.	Nate Robinson	Washington	538.0	16	Rashad McCants
11.	Deron Williams	Illinois	523.7	3	Antoine Wright
12.	Jarrett Jack	Georgia Tech	523.3	17	Joey Graham

* among collegians only

Notables: Charlie Villanueva (521.9, 13th); David Lee (482.7, 19th); Kelenna Azubuike (454.2, 25th) Salim Stoudamire (449.4, 26th); Francisco Garcia (448.8, 27th); Daniel Ewing (446.3, 28th); Chuck Hayes (443.9, 30th); Ronny Turiaf (442.7); Ryan Gomes (430.9); Hakim Warrick (427.8); Luther Head (419.7) Ike Diogu (402.5); Antoine Wright (387.8); Joey Graham (353.8); Jason Maxiell (342.5); Linas Kleiza (308.4)

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2006 Draft: Top 12 rated players
NO.	PLAYER	SCHOOL	SCORE	PICKED*	ACTUAL ORDER*
1.	Tyrus Thomas	LSU	756.8	3	LaMarcus Aldridge
2.	Shelden Williams	Duke	583.1	4	Adam Morrison
3.	Brandon Roy	Washington	557.6	5	Tyrus Thomas
4.	Ronnie Brewer	Arkansas	555.8	11	Shelden Williams
5.	Rudy Gay	Connecticut	552.1	7	Brandon Roy
6.	Patrick O'Bryant	Bradley	551.9	8	Randy Foye
7.	Paul Davis	Michigan State	546.6	28	Rudy Gay
8.	Kyle Lowry	Villanova	538.6	20	Patrick O'Bryant
9.	Rajon Rondo	Kentucky	534.5	17	J.J. Redick
10.	LaMarcus Aldridge	Texas	524.3	1	Hilton Armstrong
11.	Quincy Douby	Rutgers	516.8	15	Ronnie Brewer
12.	Marcus Williams	Connecticut	512.1	18	Cedric Simmons

* among collegians only

Notables: Randy Foye (502.3, 13th); J.J. Redick (479.6, 18th); Rodney Carney (469.4, 19th); Adam Morrison (466.3, 20th); Renaldo Balkman (458.3, 23rd); Daniel Gibson (456.3, 25th); Jordan Farmar (450.0, 27th); Paul Millsap (440.0); Josh Boone (414.8); Craig Smith (377.8); Hilton Armstrong (304.6)

Here's is Hollinger's predictor for 2007:

2007 Draft: Top 30 rated collegians, plus other notables
NO.	PLAYER	SCHOOL	SCORE	CHAD FORD'S RANKING
1.	Kevin Durant	Texas	870.7	2
2.	Greg Oden	Ohio State	667.9	1
3.	Mike Conley Jr.	Ohio State	637.9	7
4.	Thaddeus Young	Georgia Tech	604.2	14
5.	Brandan Wright	North Carolina	601.4	8
6.	Al Horford	Florida	601.0	3
7.	Nick Fazekas	Nevada	594.3	35
8.	Josh McRoberts	Duke	566.7	26
9.	Rodney Stuckey	E. Washington	557.7	16
10.	Jared Dudley	Boston College	542.6	31
11.	Joakim Noah	Florida	528.6	9
12.	Glen Davis	LSU	521.0	25
13.	Sean Williams	Boston College	511.3	20
14.	Jeff Green	Georgetown	505.5	6
15.	Kyle Visser	Wake Forest	503.5	57
16.	Herbert Hill	Providence	503.0	49
17.	Javaris Crittenton	Georgia Tech	492.2	18
18.	Wilson Chandler	DePaul	483.1	30
19.	Julian Wright	Kansas	481.4	11
20.	Daequan Cook	Ohio State	470.0	27
21.	D.J. Strawberry	Maryland	465.5	52
22.	Jason Smith	Colorado State	464.9	17
23.	Alando Tucker	Wisconsin	464.3	41
24.	Corey Brewer	Florida	462.4	5
25.	Al Thornton	Florida State	447.8	10
26.	Marcus Williams	Arizona	445.8	33
27.	Acie Law	Texas A&M	445.2	15
28.	Aaron Gray	Pittsburgh	440.5	38
29.	Zabian Dowdell	Virginia Tech	438.2	34
30.	Spencer Hawes	Washington	433.9	12
	Other notables
	Morris Almond	Rice	425.6	22
	Derrick Byars	Vanderbilt	421.9	28
	Gabe Pruitt	USC	421.0	21
	Nick Young	USC	383.8	13
	Taurean Green	Florida	350.4	39
	Arron Afflalo	UCLA	336.1	32
	Ramon Sessions	Nevada	334.7	37

Very interesting. See my Mock Draft to follow...

Yovanni Gallardo and MLB Thinking

The Brewers are considering sending hot-shot prospect Yovanni Gallardo, he of the 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 2 sterling starts, to the bullpen when Chris Capuano returns. Here's what I wrote my friend and fantasy baseball co-owner:

There's absolutely NO REASON to send Gallardo to the pen. If they do this, the Brewers are hurting themselves in every possible way. I would probably prefer that Gallardo go back to the minors.

1) Gallardo is their 2nd best pitcher overall - Ben Sheets - and gives them the absolute best chance to win now. They are built to win this year, in a very weak division and league in general. Putting Sheets and Gallardo out there gives them a good chance to win 40% of the time, not to mention Capuano and whoever else they run out there. Allowing Vargas and Bush to start makes NO SENSE.

2) Pitching Gallardo out of the pen is nothing if not damaging for his career, long term. I can understand you want to cut his innings - but yanking him in and out of the game, pitching everyday, and for short stints, is definitely not the ideal career path for a future staff ace. This idiotic.

3) Starting pitching is a valuable commodity. If you have surplus - TRADE IT. Bush or Vargas would probably fetch a nice bench hitter or good middle reliever (say, Heath Bell) that would improve the Brewers by leaps and bounds.

Conventional baseball wisdom is idiotic. Everyone is so afraid to go against the grain. Just an abject lack of common sense in terms of managing and player moves just kills me about baseball. If we managed a law firm or a company the way some teams manage their teams, our economy would tank.
No one wants to try something different, so we can a bunch of automotons just cycling through old baseball addages. And most time they just shoot themselves in the foot, or it takes repeated beatings to get the lesson through. Here's just a few examples:

1) It took the Red Sox months to move Julio Lugo, who is hitting under .200 and has an OBP hovering right above .220, to the 9th spot in the lineup.

2) It took the Nationals 3 months to move Felipe Lopez, who has an OBP of .275, from the leadoff spot to #2. Why? Because he's a "leadoff hitter."

3) The Brewers allowed Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino to platoon at 3B despite the fact that Ryan Braun had an OPS over 1.100 at AAA and hit major league pitching in spring training.

4) The Marlins traded a good prospect, Yuermio Petitt, for Jorge Julio. Then, they allowed Julio to blow 4 saves in spectacular fashion. Then, they traded Julio for BH Kim. Unbelievable.

5) The Phillies yanked their staff ace out of the rotation after one - ONE - bad start and made him a middle reliever turned closer when their real closer got hurt. Then they pitched him almost everyday for a month until he broke down.

Those are just the ones I can think of.

The Arenas Quandry

For the past 2 years, despite Washington's love affair with the Redskins, the biggest sports story is our Washington Wizards point guard, Gilbert Arenas. In equal parts due to his quirky personality and his exciting, varied basketball skills, Arenas has become this city's biggest sports star, eclipsing even equally exciting personalities like Clinton Portis and Alexander Ovechkin. Despite his season ending knee injury this past season, the Wizards in January and February of 2007 played like the best team in the Eastern Conference and, had they continued that play, might have advanced near the Eastern Conference finals.

Now, of course, Gilbert wants to opt out of his contract after 2007 and become a free agent. Players like Arenas rarely, if ever, hit free agency, and despite his stated intention of returning to Washington, expect every NBA team with or without salary cap space to make an end run at acquiring him. While Washington has the advantage of a 6th year and added money, will that be enough?

Arenas has frequently stated his desire to see the team improved before he commits to a nother long-term deal with Washington. While a franchise never wants to be held hostage by one player (see, Kobe, Lakers) the Wizards in this instance almost have to acquiesce to their stars' demands. The question is, how?

With next season a huge litmus test for the Wizards, their goal should be to advance as far as possible in the playoffs, period. No "building for the future." You only get a chance at the "future" in the NBA for a 4-5 years window every 15 years (or if you're the Wizards, 20 years) or so. With Arenas, Butler and Jamison, the Wizards are positioned to make some noise in the East, with draft stars Oden and Durant likely banished to Portland and Seattle, respectively. So, with the 16th pick, the Wizards need to pick a player who can contribute NOW. No Tiago Splitter, no Thaddeus Young, no Javaris Crittendon. They need a player who is ready to step in and give them something.

Pecherov (our 1st round pick last year) is coming here this season; with him and a steady draft choice (i.e. Marco Bellini) the Wizards can compete with anyone in the East. A trip to the Eastern Conference Finals may be the only thing that keeps Gilbert in those hideous bronze uniforms.

I'm Back on the East Coast

After a lengthy sojourn out to Southern California, I'm back in Washington, D.C., and hopefully to stay (the blog's address - homage to one of the great football teams ever, the 1991 Washington Redskins, probably a top 10-15 all-time team). Not sure if this blog is going to stick - my last one only lasted 2 or 3 overall posts - but if I have something to rant/talk about, it'll be here. Since I'm time-limited by work (aren't we all), I'll try to get one up when I can.

My focus probably will be on local DC sports, but I might go off on various tangents and digressions. As always, I'll probably make a lot of mistakes and say a lot of stuff that's wrong, but that's the beauty of the comments system. Be sure to check out my friend Mike's blog about generally non-sports related topics: www.daubery.blogspot.com.

Without further ado...